Part Two: A Step Backwards

Let’s flip the coin. We have examined the possibility that the “Gang of 5” Taliban leaders released by the Obama Administration have no connection to al Qaeda, and supposed that in that context they posed only a risk to the stability of Afghanistan.  But what if they do have ties to al Qaeda?  What does that mean for the US, its citizens abroad, and the world as a whole?

For some, the memory of September 11, 2020 will forever be etched into the heart of their subconscious, but for others the memory seems to have faded as the years passed by, and then there is a generation growing that does not even remember the day.  The New York Times recently ran a poll that suggested approximately 68 percent of Americans are only slightly concerned about terrorism, 60 percent believe the government is prepared for another attack, and 48 percent feel we are securely protected.  These numbers can be examined two ways. One, the US has done a good job of curbing terrorism and protecting the country, or two, the American people are somewhat uninformed.

It is true that the US and its key allies have worked hard and made strides in the war on terror.  After all bin Laden was captured and killed, but how safe does one man’s death make us?  (Especially if his followers and predecessors believe they can negotiate with the most powerful country)  While strides have been made, recent events tell us that the extremists are not going away.  A report just released by the Rand Corporation notes that there has been a 58 percent increase in terror groups just in the last few years, with the majority of new fighters headed to Syria. What does Syria have to do with the Taliban?  Well, in the negotiations to release the “Gang of 5,” it was Qatar that offered to house and monitor these men.  While Qatar does not normally head the list of nations harboring terrorists, its close neighbors do.  Syria is less than 1500 miles north, Saudi Arabia (birth place of al Qaeda) is a boarder nation, and Yemen (the current hot bed for al Qaeda) is a mere 700 miles south.  Less than a month ago al Qaeda held and broadcast a large meeting in Yemen to encourage current fighters and attract new ones.   At this meeting the current number two leader, Nasir Al-Wuhayshi, echoed the words of bin Laden in the ‘90s when he swore vengeance on the US. Though it is currently a thriving industrious nation, Qatar is in the center of a region teeming with terrorism and extremist.  What is the likelihood that five former leaders of an extremist regime will not seek to readmit themselves to a battle they so hardheartedly believe in?

The current thought is that while terrorism may still occur the groups involved are fractured and the Taliban had different goals from al Qaeda so they will not connect.  Although the extent of the Taliban and al Qaeda’s connects can be disputed the fact remains they do share inroads.  First and foremost they share a worldview—Islam and the destruction of all those who do not share their faith—and that is a powerful thing.  Second, the Taliban knew al Qaeda was in Afghanistan and they shared training camps.  Three, while al Qaeda may have started in Saudi Arabia it grew in the border regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan at the same time and along the same routes as the Taliban.  The decentralized state of al Qaeda does not make it weaker, it makes it more unpredictable.  They are harder to track, they can move more easily (both physically and financially), and their network now expands to include groups not previously counted as terrorists.  In addition, the Taliban now have something great to offer. The “Gang of 5” have inside information—they know interrogations techniques, they know what we already know and the information we still seek, and they know the layout and routines for Gitmo.  While leaders may think there is no way these men retained much information, you can believe they are intelligent and after 12 years in prison (at the hands of infidels) more determined than ever.

In the past few years the current administration put trackers on illegal weapons headed for Mexico, lost them and found them in a Border Patrol agent killed in the line of duty.  They missed or ignored intel that could have prevented or mitigated the Benghazi attack that killed a US diplomat.  And they missed a huge al Qaeda meeting held in the open and broadcast on the internet.  However, they have assured Congress, the American people, and the world that these five Taliban leaders will not return to their previous life.  Maybe they will not.  Maybe, just maybe, they will pick up the fight in a new location-Syria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, the US?

Sources: Rand Corporation, New York Times, CNN, Washington Post, The Patriot Post, the Telegraph, Pakistan Defense, various books on Afghanistan and al Qaeda.

Image courtesy of http://www.stern.de/investigativ/projekte/terrorismus/ausbildungscamp-mir-ali-die-wiege-des-terrors-1771220.html